16/03/2017

5 first insights to understand why populism is not on the way out in the Netherlands

Hello all foreign readers,

It seems as if our supertiny country has attracted quite some attention these days as all eyes were focused towards the main question: will a wave of populism change Europe? And although on the surface the answer seems a clear NO, there is more to the results than meets the eye.

In my humble opinion, the current results of the Dutch exit-poll show how populism and clientelism have become more prominent here, as in all other countries around the world. So mind you: in the Netherlands we're still moving to less democracy and more populism.

This will be clear after the reading the insights below. But do note that these are based on the exit-polls and not the final vote.

Insight # 1: Dutch voters have learnt their lesson, punished government and no longer voted strategic
What we can see is that both VVD (-10) and PvdA (-20) have been punished for their role in the preceding government. During the last elections, many citizens voted strategically and shifted their votes from their original parties to either VVD (right) or PvdA (left) to avoid the other party to become the biggest.

Yet through a strange turn of events and due to the anxious hunger for power, VVD and PvdA decided to work together. They compromised on fundamental party principles in order to be in power. As such they both disappointed the strategic voters and their party fanatics who assumed that it was unlikely that these two would work together with the enemy, even without additional parties.

PvdA and VVD formed an alliance that was based on very limited support and did not have a majority in the Senate. When started it was clear that they would focus on one thing only: surviving as a government out of fear that in-between elections would lead to a massive victory for PVV.

The first lesson in todays outcome in the Netherlands is that strategic voters have learnt that strategic voting does not pay. In addition, die hard party fans of both PvdA and VVD did not accept the fact that their party was sleeping with the enemy. So first and foremost, both parties are punished for quickly seeking power with the dark side. And the strategic voters have decided not to do this again but vote for their principles.

Insight #2: Dutch are more populist than before, but they come in different clothing
Whereas it looks as if the regular party VVD (31 seats) is the biggest with runners up CDA (19), D66 (19) and PVV (19), we should note that the only non-populist party in this row is D66. Both VVD and CDA made a sharp right turn by taking PVV-like positions on immigration and such.

With this in mind, I think it would be fair to say that effectively we had at least three rightish populist parties on the scene, who together assembled 69 out of 150 seats. This used to be 56 seats (for VVD and PVV) in the previous elections.

On top of that we can see that, even though parties all declared that right-wing PVV would not be invited for government roles (given their unreliable stance some years ago), the parties has won some 4 seats.

Right now, this election evening, most people and foreign media are misstaking the wood for the trees by concluding that the low amount of seats for PVV is a signal that the battle agains populism has been won in the Netherlands. It is with much regret that I need to conclude otherwise: the existing parties have adopted the populism and it is more widespread than before.

Insight #3: Fact free politics are also on the rise in the Netherlands
All over the world we are witnessing new 'leaders' or political activists who don't care about truth but focus on convincing the public by playing on their emotion. They don't provide solutions to real life problems, but are able to amass considerable support, either from within existing parties or as a new political party.

It's the same here. We have narcistic old and new players with a lot of noise, but no true consistent content coming into play from different angles. Among these are the party for elderly, forum for democracy, THINK and PVV. From a number of 15 seats in 2012, these are now expected to gain 28 seats.

Insight #4: Turkish incident helped both VVD and DENK with some extra seats
This weekend, just before the elections, the Dutch and Turkish government ended up in a diplomatic row over unwanted visitors to the Netherlands. This allowed prime minister Rutte (VVD) to pose as a leader, thus winning some seats, while DENK (representing Turkish interests in the Netherlands) avoided to enter the debate. Their existence did allow the irritated Turkish/Dutch citizens to voice their anger on the discrimination that they experience in the Netherlands.

One could compare this to the situation with Eurosongfestivals, where the immigrant population in the Netherlands and Germany have a big vote/say in influencing the Dutch end result.

Insight #5: Better economy allows for a more positive stance
With the economy starting to gear up slowly, there is more room for a positive outlook and progressive choices. Both GL (Greenleft) and D66 (liberals) spreaded a positive message and succeeded in regaining their strategic voters from the PvdA while adding some new ones. Therefore their results improved from 4 to 16 (GreenLeft) and from 12 to 19 (D66).

So did we stop populism and clientelism here in the Netherlands?
While many here in the Netherlands are strongly hoping that our election message to Europe and the world is that populism has been put on hold here, I am afraid that conclusion is not justified. Some of the mainstream parties have adopted the populist positions of PVV, including some measures that are in conflict with treaties and basic human rights. Meanwhile the PVV has still grown and some smaller parties popped up that are more in the personal interest of the party leaders themselves than for the public.

My conclusion is therefore that populism and clientelism is still with us, even stronger than before. Due to its absorption in main stream politics and the specific Dutch electoral landscape outsiders, may be less able to identify this. But I would not be surprised if in other jurisdictions, with other electoral constellations, the trend of populisms and clientelism (Fillon) remains the main trend, just as it is here.

So, the Netherlands may have appeared to have stopped populism, but mind you, we didn't!

23/01/2017

Dutch insight for the US: how to understand Trump best

Hi there all you US Citizens,

It's been a remarkable couple of months, hasn't it?

Your democracy, known for its delicate set of checks and balances, has unbalanced itself into a situation where a Presidential candidate that wins the popular vote by 3 million is not becoming President. Instead an extreme narcissist has now entered the White House and everybody is wondering how to read and understand his 'politics'.

Let me try and help you, the US public, in understanding how to deal with this new President. Because over here in the Netherlands we already have (had) some similar politicans running around and that has provided us with sufficient learning material.

It's always and exclusively about inflated self-esteem
The major rule for understanding narcissist is not to listen to their talk. It's never about the things they say. Narcissist have an intrinsic lack of self-esteem which they want to compensate by getting attention and compliments. As deep as their lack of self-esteem, as high is their need for compliments and admiration.

Narcissist lie by definition. They adapt their stance to make sure one thing is constant: their own image in the mirror of a reputable, God-like human being who can and will get all they want. And in order to preserve this image, they will manipulate their environment with a psychopathic lack of conscience.

When caught in the act (of lying), narcissist will deny and manipulate for so long that in the end people stop calling them out. We've heard footage of denigrating talk about the treatment of women and even that has not stopped a large chunk of US citizens from denying this erratic person entry into their most important public office.

How to understand their inside thinking: reverse their statements and accusations
The best way to understand what's going on in the mind of narcissist is to fully reverse all statements that they make. So when a narcissist says his opponent is rigging the elections, this explains exactly what he is doing at that moment. Or when he says that the press is lying about the turnout for inaguration day, you can bet that he is lying himself about it.

The one thing not to do is to expect continuity in thinking. A narcissist will never be caught in being consistent. They refrase, ly and don't care about being inconsistent. Trying to construct this consistence from the outside is of no use: there is none. The only consistent thing happening is that the narcissist is playing the power stadium just as long as he gets what he wants: attention and compliments.

For the current US president it is quite obvious that he has had a youth with a cold, ambitious father who never really cared about his own kids. The closest thing to true fathers that Trump ever came in contact with are the generals and corporals in the army. This explains his high ratio of former military among his staff. He tries to assemble support from fatherly figures.

The eternal tragedy of all this is that as hard as one can try, you can never end up with the so much desired self-esteem this way. Self-esteem is something gained from within and no manipulation or even US Presidency will help you get it.

How to end this: neglect the attention seeker or overcompliment into oblivion
The essential way out of an unhealthy narcist relation is to not share anything personal and try and cut all ties. In doing so one either fully neglects the narcissists or overcompliments them into oblivion. Alas to say that both strategies may be hard to execute when the person in question holds such an important office.

Yet, it could well be the case that the other players in the world game of power recognize Trump for what he is and seek more stable alliances with each other rather than deal with the erratic treats of Trump. Which gets you exactly where you don't want to be.

How this will end for the US?
I am sorry to say, but the end of a narccisist is always somewhat destructive. If we summarize Trump his whole business consists of lying, constructing an image, selling the image and moving forward to a next adventure before anyone discovers that his previous adventure was a full fail and financial disaster. The tiny info that was provided on his tax deductions already shows this.

Given that he is now playing his game on a national level, you may expect the US to spend more than it can, to alienate all international stakeholders until some geopolitical or health incident happens. When all the dust settles, the US will discover that Trump has only worked towards a greater image of himself and funds for his children. But the country itself will be worse off, unless perhaps for some costly highways, built by former business friends of the president.

The so called angry Americans that have voted for him, will then discover that he was indeed a con artist that robbed them not only of their vote, but also of their self-esteem as well as their health care. All that the US will have left is nice pictures, selfies of Trump golfing at Balmoral castle, a golden plated and redecorated White House and - god forbid - most likely an extra Trump face carved out in Mount Rushmore.



This beautiful country of yours will thus experience the reversed American Dream. Trumps reign will send you from a millionaires position into an isolated newspaper delivery boy (with a big mouth).

Hope?
I just hope for your sake that there won't be time enough during this 45th President's reign to ruin all the good things of the US. And I very much hope you will be able to see and live the next years as an intermediary phase, needed to learn a costly lesson about democracy.